RTP and volatility, explained

Pokies Explained editorial team. Last reviewed September 2026.

Return to player (RTP) is the share of all money wagered on a machine that it is designed to pay back over its lifetime. It describes the machine, not your session.

What an RTP figure means

If a machine has an RTP of 90%, it is designed so that, across millions of spins by many players, it pays back about 90 cents of every dollar wagered. The remaining 10 cents is the house edge: the operator's expected income.

It does not mean you get $90 back if you put in $100. Some players will win in the short term and many will lose more than 10%, especially because winnings are usually fed back into the machine.

Why the money goes faster than the percentage suggests

RTP applies to the total amount wagered, not the amount you bring. Suppose you start with $100 and play $1 spins on a 90% machine. Every time you rebet your winnings, the house edge applies again. After 1,000 spins you have wagered $1,000, and the expected loss is $100, which is your whole starting balance, even though the machine "returns 90%".

Expected loss at $1 per spin on a machine with 90% RTP
Spins playedTotal wageredExpected lossRough time at a spin every 4 seconds
100$100$10about 7 minutes
500$500$50about 33 minutes
1,000$1,000$100about 67 minutes
3,000$3,000$300about 3 hours 20 minutes

These are averages. Real sessions vary a lot around them, in both directions.

Volatility: how the return is paid

Two machines can have the same RTP but feel completely different. Volatility (sometimes called variance) describes how that return is spread out.

  • Low volatility machines pay small amounts often. Balances move slowly and sessions last longer.
  • High volatility machines pay rarely but sometimes pay large amounts. Balances can fall quickly, and long runs without a meaningful win are normal.

High-volatility games are often marketed around their biggest possible wins. Those wins are real but rare, and their cost is spread across everyone who plays.

Where RTP figures come from in Australia

State and territory regulators set a minimum theoretical return for gaming machines in their jurisdiction, commonly in the mid-to-high 80 percent range. The exact minimum depends on where you are and sometimes on the type of venue. A machine can be set above the minimum, but venues are not always required to display the figure for each individual game. If you want to know, you can ask the venue or check your state regulator's website.

Offshore online casinos often advertise very high RTP figures. Because these sites are not licensed in Australia, nobody here verifies those numbers, and the game you play may not be configured the way the advertisement suggests.

What RTP can't tell you

RTP can't predict a session, can't tell you when a machine will pay, and can't make any game profitable to play over time. Every machine with an RTP below 100% is designed to take more than it gives back. The practical takeaway: decide in advance what you are willing to spend for entertainment, treat it as the price of that entertainment, and stop when it's gone.